454 Main St

Center Moriches, NY 11934

$1,250,000D-

16 bd · 16.0 ba · — sqft · Built 1904 · MultiFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,555
• Tax + insurance: −$1,598
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,986
• Net cashflow: $-682/mo
• Annual: $-8,179/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $350,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $1.25M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-682 ($-8k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-170/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.13M (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $946k (24.3% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $946k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $38k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#641 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Center Moriches Union Free School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #188 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Clayton Huey Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 598 students, 28% FRL); Center Moriches Middle School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 325 students, 29% FRL); Center Moriches High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 556 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.9% in Center Moriches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.