454 Main St · Center Moriches, NY 11934

$1,250,000

16 bd · 16.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1904 1.58 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Landmark Main St Victorian circa 1904 with detached barn is available for the first time in many years! Rare opportunity to purchase this 4 family investment opportunity set on a 1.58 acre property with access from Main St and Crosby St. The Main St location offers easy access to all amenities including schools, shopping, public transit and more. This historic property is well maintained and the Victorian character is well preserved. There are 3 one bedroom apartments and 1 large studio, all occupied. With the possibility of strong cash flow, this is an ideal asset for seasoned investors, 1031 exchange buyers or extended family. So many possibilities, don't let this rare offering pass you

Key facts

• 1.58 acre lot
• Built 1904
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Quadruplex; Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Full attic
• Exterior features: Front yard; Landscaped grounds; Level lot; Partially wooded; Near public transit; Near schools; Near shops; Located in a historic district; Barn(s); Carport(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchens in units
• Bedrooms: Four 1-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil fuel; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Covered porch
• Laundry & utility: Basement with partial, unfinished space and Bilco doors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $1.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-682 ($-8k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-170/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.13M (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $946k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $946k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.9% in Center Moriches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#641 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Center Moriches Union Free School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #188 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Clayton Huey Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 598 students, 28% FRL); Center Moriches Middle School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 325 students, 29% FRL); Center Moriches High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $38k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $945,800 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-246,117
• Equity at exit: $186,379

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-270,840
• Equity at exit: $108,077

Cash invested: $350,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11934

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 44.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,555
• Tax from tax record: −$1,077 /mo · $12,929/yr
• Insurance: −$521
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,986
• Net cashflow: $-682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,321

Max offer price $1,129,602

Occupancy floor —

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	1	1	$9,460
Total (4 units)			$9,458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $312,500
• Closing costs: $37,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $1,250,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,250,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,250,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,250,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,250,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,250,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,250,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $1,250,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,929 · $1,077/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,027 · $1,419/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,098/yr (+$342/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $113,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$70,019
• − Property taxes: −$12,929
• − Insurance: −$6,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,080
• − Management: −$9,080
• − Depreciation: −$36,364
• Taxable loss: −$30,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,254
• After-tax cash flow: $-924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Center Moriches Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3606840
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $86,698
• Composite: 54.64/100
• National rank: #1332
• State rank: #188 of 590 in NY

Livability — Center Moriches

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #11936

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Center Moriches, NY
• City population: 8,222
• Population (ZIP): 8,222

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.89%
• Current HPI: 350.6186
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,929 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.