472 NW Hot Springs Alameda Rd

Stevenson, WA 98648

$435,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,499/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-776/mo
• Annual: $-9,311/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-776 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (42.5% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $250k (42.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#179 in WA, #4,705 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Stevenson-Carson School District (rural): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #209 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carson Elementary (193 students, 60% FRL); Wind River Middle School (208 students, 60% FRL); Stevenson High School (265 students, 51% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Skamania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $435k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.