472 NW Hot Springs Alameda Rd · Stevenson, WA 98648

$435,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1949 6,098 sqft lot $233/sqft · 38% below area Est $506k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovingly remodeled cottage style home with Columbia River views! This 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home features a recently updated kitchen with hardwood floors & cabinets and SS appliances. Both bathrooms have been updated as well.Step out on your deck and enjoy Columbia River views.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Thunder island view
• Cascade locks view

Tags

• COLUMBIA RIVER VIEW
• BRIDGE OF THE GODS VIEW
• THUNDER ISLAND VIEW
• CASCADE LOCKS VIEW
• LARGE WINDOWS
• WOOD BURNING STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is not new construction; Main level area reported as 1,344

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Driveway; Detached 1-car garage; One parking space
• Utilities: Electricity and gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Updated/remodeled; River and territorial views; Corner, sloped lot; Concrete road access
• Construction: Built in 1949; Composition roof; Foundation information not provided
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; Tool shed; Workshop; Shingle siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Free-standing refrigerator; Granite countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level; Second bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood and wood floors
• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms total (1 full, 1 partial)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wood stove; No central cooling
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Wood floors; Laundry area; Washer and dryer included; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Gas hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-776 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (42.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (42.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#179 in WA, #4,705 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Stevenson-Carson School District (rural): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #209 of 291 in WA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carson Elementary (193 students, 60% FRL); Wind River Middle School (208 students, 60% FRL); Stevenson High School (265 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Skamania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $435k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,919 (42.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $505,825
• List price: $435,000
• Delta: -5.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
260 NW Stone Brooke	0.21mi	3/3.0	1,874 (+0%)	3mo	$619,000	$330	83
404 NE Lutheran Church Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-3%)	6mo	$784,566	$436	62
85 SW Monda Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	2,043 (+10%)	6mo	$515,000	$252	59
178 NE Tari Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,817 (-2%)	10mo	$564,000	$310	50
890 NW First Falls View Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-9%)	22mo	$655,000	$384	46
450 NW Frank Johns Rd	0.46mi	3/4.0	1,976 (+6%)	18mo	$650,000	$329	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $187,373
• Equity at exit: $391,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $590,409
• Equity at exit: $845,109

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98648

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,499 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,454/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,481

Max offer price $297,928

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-530	-5% $-653	+0% $-776	+5% $-899	+10% $-1,022
Rent	-10% $-973	-5% $-875	+0% $-776	+5% $-677	+10% $-578
Rate	-1.0pp $-557	-0.5pp $-665	base $-776	+0.5pp $-889	+1.0pp $-1,003

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $435,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $435,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $435,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $465,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $465,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $465,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $465,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $465,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $465,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    pricedays on market $465,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on marketlisting id $479,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $479,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $479,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $479,000 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,000 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $479,000 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,000 Active 182 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,000 Active 181 DOM
19. 2026-04-22
    price $479,000 874-char remark
20. 2026-04-08
    status Active 874-char remark
21. 2025-10-09
    price $518,000 874-char remark
22. 2025-09-11
    listed $523,000 Active 874-char remark
23. 2017-03-30
    soldstatus $170,000
24. 2010-01-20
    soldstatus $204,000 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Lovingly remodeled cottage style home with Columbia River views! This 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home features a recently updated kitchen with hardwood floors & cabinets and SS appliances. Both bathrooms have been updated as well.Step out on your deck and enjoy Columbia River views.

25. 2010-01-20
    soldstatus $204,100

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Lovingly remodeled cottage style home with Columbia River views! This 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home features a recently updated kitchen with hardwood floors & cabinets and SS appliances. Both bathrooms have been updated as well.Step out on your deck and enjoy Columbia River views.

26. 2009-12-02
    historical 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Lovingly remodeled cottage style home with Columbia River views! This 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home features a recently updated kitchen with hardwood floors & cabinets and SS appliances. Both bathrooms have been updated as well.Step out on your deck and enjoy Columbia River views.

27. 2009-10-30
    listed $209,500 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Lovingly remodeled cottage style home with Columbia River views! This 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home features a recently updated kitchen with hardwood floors & cabinets and SS appliances. Both bathrooms have been updated as well.Step out on your deck and enjoy Columbia River views.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,454 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,263 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: +$809/yr (+$67/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$3,454
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,399
• − Management: −$2,399
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$17,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,190
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stevenson-Carson School District
• NCES district ID: 5308520
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,512
• Composite: 37.73/100
• National rank: #8766
• State rank: #209 of 291 in WA

Livability — Stevenson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #179
• US rank: #4705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stevenson, WA
• Population (ZIP): 3,353

Population outlook (Skamania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,886 people
• By 2030: 12,036 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 11,995 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 11,607 · -2.3%
• By 2075: 10,881 · -8.5%
• By 2100: 10,392 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skamania

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.0% · R 54.2% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+9.5 2016: R+12.6 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.97%
• Current HPI: 333.2329
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+107.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $435,000 RMLS
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $465,000 RMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $479,000 RMLS
• 2017-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2010-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $204,100 Public Records
• 2010-01-20 Sold (MLS) $204,000 RMLS
• 2009-12-02 Delisted — RMLS
• 2009-10-30 Listed $209,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,454 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.