303 16th St

Liberty, PA 16678

$147,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 286 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $854/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $-245/mo
• Annual: $-2,945/yr
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.15%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $41,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $147k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (41.9% below list).
• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (41.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#659 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Tussey Mountain SD (rural): math 26% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #412 of 539 in PA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tussey Mountain El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,518 statewide, top 68%, 374 students, 100% FRL); Tussey Mountain Ms (math 15% / reading 50%, grade F, #355 of 512 statewide, top 70%, 270 students, 100% FRL); Tussey Mountain Hs (math 64%, 291 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 51% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $147k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 5.5% in Liberty — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.