303 16th St · Liberty, PA 16678

$147,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 286 Days on market

Built 1950 6,969 sqft lot $191/sqft · 96% above area Est $150k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Where in the mountains can you find a little bungalow that would make an exceptional full time residence, short term rental or a lake retreat? Saxton of course. .. home to one of the friendliest and well stocked grocery stores in the region, little coffee cafes, fabulous pizza and almost with walking distance to Lake Raystown. With State Parks and outdoor activities abundant in the area, you will never lack for things to occupy your time and keep you outdoors and on the go. .. .so much history in these mountains. .. here is what AI has to say about Saxton and it pretty much sums it up. .. . Saxton, PA, is known for its pioneering past as the location of the first U. S. nuclear power plant, the Saxton Nuclear Generating Station, and for its connection to the region's historical coal mining era. Today, it is recognized as a small, peaceful town offering a quiet, rural living experience amidst beautiful scenery with access to nearby recreational areas like Raystown Lake.

Key facts

• Recreational areas
• Quiet rural living
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• QUIET RURAL LIVING
• RECREATIONAL AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (41.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (41.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 5.5% in Liberty — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#659 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Tussey Mountain SD (rural): math 26% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #412 of 539 in PA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tussey Mountain El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,518 statewide, top 68%, 374 students, 100% FRL); Tussey Mountain Ms (math 15% / reading 50%, grade F, #355 of 512 statewide, top 70%, 270 students, 100% FRL); Tussey Mountain Hs (math 64%, 291 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 51% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $147k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $85,438 (41.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.15%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,198
• List price: $147,000
• Delta: -2.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-173
• Equity at exit: $63,750

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $24,022
• Equity at exit: $96,460

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16678

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,059/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $103,650

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-162	-5% $-204	+0% $-245	+5% $-287	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-279	+0% $-245	+5% $-212	+10% $-178
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-208	base $-245	+0.5pp $-283	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $147,000 Active 286 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $147,000 Active 285 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,000 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,000 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,000 Active 281 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,000 Active 280 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,000 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $147,000 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,000 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $147,000 Active 273 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $147,000 Active 272 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,000 Active 271 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $147,000 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,000 Active 267 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,000 Active 266 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,000 Active 265 DOM
17. 2025-12-24
    price $147,000 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Where in the mountains can you find a little bungalow that would make an exceptional full time residence, short term rental or a lake retreat? Saxton of course. .. home to one of the friendliest and well stocked grocery stores in the region, little coffee cafes, fabulous pizza and almost with walking distance to Lake Raystown. With State Parks and outdoor activities abundant in the area, you will never lack for things to occupy your time and keep you outdoors and on the go. .. .so much history in these mountains. .. here is what AI has to say about Saxton and it pretty much sums it up. .. . Saxton, PA, is known for its pioneering past as the location of the first U. S. nuclear power plant, the Saxton Nuclear Generating Station, and for its connection to the region's historical coal mining era. Today, it is recognized as a small, peaceful town offering a quiet, rural living experience amidst beautiful scenery with access to nearby recreational areas like Raystown Lake.

18. 2025-12-24
    price $147,000 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Where in the mountains can you find a little bungalow that would make an exceptional full time residence, short term rental or a lake retreat? Saxton of course. .. home to one of the friendliest and well stocked grocery stores in the region, little coffee cafes, fabulous pizza and almost with walking distance to Lake Raystown. With State Parks and outdoor activities abundant in the area, you will never lack for things to occupy your time and keep you outdoors and on the go. .. .so much history in these mountains. .. here is what AI has to say about Saxton and it pretty much sums it up. .. . Saxton, PA, is known for its pioneering past as the location of the first U. S. nuclear power plant, the Saxton Nuclear Generating Station, and for its connection to the region's historical coal mining era. Today, it is recognized as a small, peaceful town offering a quiet, rural living experience amidst beautiful scenery with access to nearby recreational areas like Raystown Lake.

19. 2025-09-08
    listed $155,000 Active 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    Where in the mountains can you find a little bungalow that would make an exceptional full time residence, short term rental or a lake retreat? Saxton of course. .. home to one of the friendliest and well stocked grocery stores in the region, little coffee cafes, fabulous pizza and almost with walking distance to Lake Raystown. With State Parks and outdoor activities abundant in the area, you will never lack for things to occupy your time and keep you outdoors and on the go. .. .so much history in these mountains. .. here is what AI has to say about Saxton and it pretty much sums it up. .. . Saxton, PA, is known for its pioneering past as the location of the first U. S. nuclear power plant, the Saxton Nuclear Generating Station, and for its connection to the region's historical coal mining era. Today, it is recognized as a small, peaceful town offering a quiet, rural living experience amidst beautiful scenery with access to nearby recreational areas like Raystown Lake.

20. 2025-09-08
    listed $155,000 Active 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    Where in the mountains can you find a little bungalow that would make an exceptional full time residence, short term rental or a lake retreat? Saxton of course. .. home to one of the friendliest and well stocked grocery stores in the region, little coffee cafes, fabulous pizza and almost with walking distance to Lake Raystown. With State Parks and outdoor activities abundant in the area, you will never lack for things to occupy your time and keep you outdoors and on the go. .. .so much history in these mountains. .. here is what AI has to say about Saxton and it pretty much sums it up. .. . Saxton, PA, is known for its pioneering past as the location of the first U. S. nuclear power plant, the Saxton Nuclear Generating Station, and for its connection to the region's historical coal mining era. Today, it is recognized as a small, peaceful town offering a quiet, rural living experience amidst beautiful scenery with access to nearby recreational areas like Raystown Lake.

21. 2025-07-02
    historical
22. 2025-04-29
    price $155,000
23. 2025-03-07
    price $155,000
24. 2025-01-16
    price $159,000
25. 2025-01-16
    price $159,000
26. 2024-12-11
    listed $165,000 Active
27. 1998-03-01
    soldstatus $45,000
28. 1977-05-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,059 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,691 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$632/yr (+$53/mo · 59.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$1,059
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$820
• − Management: −$820
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable loss: −$5,692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tussey Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4223970
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 30.15/100
• National rank: #6329
• State rank: #412 of 539 in PA

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #6444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stonerstown, PA
• City population: 6,139
• Population (ZIP): 2,461

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,395 people
• By 2030: 43,353 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 38,858 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 34,162 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 24,868 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 16,910 · -62.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.6) · D 15.4% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.8pp · 2024: -68.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.71%
• Current HPI: 150.9539
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1370.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $147,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $147,000 AHARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $155,000 AHARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $155,000 AHARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $159,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $159,000 AHARMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1977-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,059 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.