21 Elm

Silver Creek, NY 14136

$26,500D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,702 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,270/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$139
• Tax + insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $821/mo
• Annual: $9,847/yr
• Cap rate: 43.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 132.70%
• DSCR: 6.90
• 1% rule: 4.79%
• Cash to close: $7,420

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $26k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $26k).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $24k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $183 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $795 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#698 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Silver Creek Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #435 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.