21 Elm · Silver Creek, NY 14136

$26,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,702 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1910

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all Invertors! House is in need of total rehab. DO NOT ENTER THE HOUSE! There is no foundation/ basement, House is sitting on Steel beams ready for a foundation/basement. There are some cement blocks there for most, if not all of the work. It is a one unit house now but could easily be a 2 unit. Good village location walkable to many amenities. Can make a good investment property or home. Close to Lake Erie/Sunset Bay and NYS Thruway I-90. SOLD AS IS!!

Key facts

• Total rehab
• Close to nys thruway
• Close to lake erie

Tags

• TOTAL REHAB
• STEEL BEAMS
• GOOD VILLAGE LOCATION
• WALKABLE TO MANY AMENITIES
• CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE
• CLOSE TO NYS THRUWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Shared driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story house; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 50 x 98)

Interior

• Kitchen: Country kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Country kitchen; Second kitchen; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $26k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $26k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#698 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Silver Creek Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #435 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $183 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $795 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $24,115 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 132.70%
• DSCR: 6.90
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,816
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Hanover St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (+1%)	11mo	$130,000	$75	79
17 Hanover St	0.07mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,626 (-4%)	9mo	$175,750	$108	75
24 Adams St	0.24mi	4/1.5	1,716 (+1%)	13mo	$136,000	$79	75
20 Parkway	0.09mi	4/1.5	1,884 (+11%)	12mo	$170,000	$90	66
12 Jaekle Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,560 (-8%)	13mo	$265,000	$170	62
12 Henry St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,722 (+1%)	9mo	$170,000	$99	60
10 Oak St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (+14%)	12mo	$170,000	$87	55
17 Robinson St	0.55mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,692 (-1%)	15mo	$130,000	$77	54
25 Monroe St	0.27mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,933 (+14%)	9mo	$250,000	$129	50
15 Knight St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,648 (-3%)	9mo	$180,000	$109	50
14 Robinson St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,888 (+11%)	8mo	$215,500	$114	46
7 Karen Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,946 (+14%)	6mo	$290,000	$149	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $47,986
• Equity at exit: $3,951

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.71×
• Total profit: $109,158
• Equity at exit: $2,291

Cash invested: $7,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14136

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$139
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$33 /mo · $398/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $232

Max offer price $26,500

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,625
• Closing costs: $795
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $26,500 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $26,500 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $26,500 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $26,500 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $26,500 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $26,500 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $26,500 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $26,500 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $26,500 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $26,500 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $26,500 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $26,500 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $26,500 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $26,500 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-03-01
    listed $26,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,484
• − Property taxes: −$398
• − Insurance: −$132
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$771
• Taxable income: $10,021
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,405
• After-tax cash flow: $7,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silver Creek Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,212
• Composite: 40.1/100
• National rank: #3804
• State rank: #435 of 590 in NY

Livability — Silver Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #13141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Creek, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,274

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 9% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.33%
• Current HPI: 291.4708
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listed $26,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,688 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.