4149 Y Hwy

Goose Creek Lake, MO 63087

$44,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax + insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $541/mo
• Annual: $6,493/yr
• Cap rate: 20.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.64%
• DSCR: 3.30
• 1% rule: 2.29%
• Cash to close: $12,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $251 of equity ($310 loan paydown + $-59 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North St. Francois County R-I (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #214 of 324 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North County Parkside Elem. (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 367 students, 62% FRL); North Co. Sr. High (math 25% / reading 56%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 873 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 2.9% in Goose Creek Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.