4149 Y Hwy · Goose Creek Lake, MO 63087

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1983 3.85 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

14x66 Single Wide Mobile home on almost 4 acres of land! 2 bed 1 bath. Property does not have a water well, but is connected to septic tank system. Possible to make an agreement with neighbor to share a well.

Key facts

• 3.85 acre lot
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,216 (public records)

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Electric service by Ameren; Sewer: unknown; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Single-story; Entry level: main
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Open lot; Approximately 3.85 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms, both on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Other type of heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Six total rooms; One level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 3.0% in Goose Creek Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North St. Francois County R-I (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #214 of 324 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North County Parkside Elem. (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 367 students, 62% FRL); North Co. Sr. High (math 25% / reading 56%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 873 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $251 of equity ($310 loan paydown + $-59 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.64%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $32,861
• Equity at exit: $12,741

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $78,534
• Equity at exit: $15,081

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63087

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $217/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $345

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-22
   listed $44,900 Active
3. 2026-05-21
   historical $44,900
4. 2013-03-05
   soldstatus 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   14x66 Single Wide Mobile home on almost 4 acres of land! 2 bed 1 bath. Property does not have a water well, but is connected to septic tank system. Possible to make an agreement with neighbor to share a well.

5. 2012-12-05
   listed $21,500 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   14x66 Single Wide Mobile home on almost 4 acres of land! 2 bed 1 bath. Property does not have a water well, but is connected to septic tank system. Possible to make an agreement with neighbor to share a well.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $217 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 101.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$217
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$988
• − Management: −$988
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $6,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,468
• After-tax cash flow: $5,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North St. Francois County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2905430
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,156
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6431
• State rank: #214 of 324 in MO

Livability — Goose Creek Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,173

Population outlook (St. Francois County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,683 people
• By 2030: 69,574 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 70,665 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 70,708 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 67,917 · -1.1%
• By 2100: 56,563 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Francois

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.8% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.13%
• Current HPI: 246.2689
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+108.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Listed $44,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Coming Soon $44,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-05 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-05 Listed $21,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $217 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.