1601 Drew Rd #45

Seeley, CA 92243

$105,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 2014 · Other · Pending · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,819/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $790/mo
• Annual: $9,479/yr
• Cap rate: 15.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.24%
• DSCR: 2.43
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $790 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,180 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Seeley Union Elementary (rural): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #489 of 517 in CA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Seeley Elementary (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,398 of 1,571 statewide, top 89%, 346 students, 95% FRL); Southwest High (math 25% / reading 63%, grade F, #458 of 1,170 statewide, top 39%, 1,889 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Seeley Union Elementary average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 271 units permitted in Imperial County in 2024 (112 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Imperial County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.