120 Lily Pad Ln

Cottleville, MO 63376

$200,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 2008 · Condo · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,725/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-323/mo
• Annual: $-3,882/yr
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.93%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.7% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#26 in MO, #2,398 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Francis Howell R-III (suburban): math 53% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #11 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Warren Elem. (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B+, #57 of 1,115 statewide, top 5%, 762 students, 9% FRL); Saeger Middle (math 56% / reading 61%, grade B, #24 of 391 statewide, top 6%, 701 students, 12% FRL); Francis Howell Central High (math 36% / reading 74%, grade C, #65 of 521 statewide, top 13%, 1,805 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.6% in Cottleville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.