120 Lily Pad Ln · Cottleville, MO 63376

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Condo public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2008 $179/sqft · 16% below area Est $239k · 16% under $400/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rarely available and impossible to overlook, this maintenance-free 2 bed, 2 bath, 1,100+ sqft condo is heaping with charm and comfort while sitting in a location that you've been dreaming about just minutes away from the best Cottleville has to offer! Upon entering you are WOWED by soaring vaulted ceilings and TONS of windows keeping the open-concept living area bright and airy to make entertaining your friends a breeze! Head into your kitchen that features chic painted cabinets, a large island with breakfast bar, and appliances including dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator, and electric stovetop/oven! Enjoy your morning coffee in the adorable breakfast room or on the large covered private balcony! The primary suite is a whole separate oasis with soaring vaulted ceiling and a huge walk-in closet plus an ensuite that features dual adult-height vanity and a separate soaking tub and shower! The second bedroom is also spacious and flexible for a work from home office or reading nook! This condo in completed by a second bathroom and a generous laundry room! All style, no hassle, and surrounded by community that makes Cottleville one of the area's most loved places to be, don't be surprised when this one gets scooped up quickly! In one of the most desirable communities in St Charles County! Just minutes from restaurants, shopping, parks, golf courses, walking trails, wineries, food trucks, outdoor entertainment, summer concerts and everything people LOVE about living in Cottleville!

Key facts

• $400 HOA
• Built 2008
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.6% in Cottleville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#26 in MO, #2,398 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Francis Howell R-III (suburban): math 53% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #11 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Warren Elem. (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B+, #57 of 1,115 statewide, top 5%, 762 students, 9% FRL); Saeger Middle (math 56% / reading 61%, grade B, #24 of 391 statewide, top 6%, 701 students, 12% FRL); Francis Howell Central High (math 36% / reading 74%, grade C, #65 of 521 statewide, top 13%, 1,805 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,853 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.93%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,833
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -16.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-53,336
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-74,296
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63376

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,853/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,135

Max offer price $142,853

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-210	-5% $-267	+0% $-323	+5% $-380	+10% $-437
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-392	+0% $-323	+5% $-255	+10% $-187
Rate	-1.0pp $-223	-0.5pp $-273	base $-323	+0.5pp $-375	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
433 Bordeaux Way Unit 433 St Peters, MO	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,695	$1.41	0d	1	0.24mi
1601 Cottleville Pkwy Saint Peters, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,880	$1.77	0d	22	0.67mi
31 Park Charles Blvd N Saint Peters, MO	2.0	1.5	1280	$1,650	$1.29	18d	1	1.09mi
18 Brooker Ct Saint Peters, MO	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,895	$1.72	4d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: electric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $200,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-05-15
   listed $200,000 Active 1501-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1501 chars)

   Rarely available and impossible to overlook, this maintenance-free 2 bed, 2 bath, 1,100+ sqft condo is heaping with charm and comfort while sitting in a location that you've been dreaming about just minutes away from the best Cottleville has to offer! Upon entering you are WOWED by soaring vaulted ceilings and TONS of windows keeping the open-concept living area bright and airy to make entertaining your friends a breeze! Head into your kitchen that features chic painted cabinets, a large island with breakfast bar, and appliances including dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator, and electric stovetop/oven! Enjoy your morning coffee in the adorable breakfast room or on the large covered private balcony! The primary suite is a whole separate oasis with soaring vaulted ceiling and a huge walk-in closet plus an ensuite that features dual adult-height vanity and a separate soaking tub and shower! The second bedroom is also spacious and flexible for a work from home office or reading nook! This condo in completed by a second bathroom and a generous laundry room! All style, no hassle, and surrounded by community that makes Cottleville one of the area's most loved places to be, don't be surprised when this one gets scooped up quickly! In one of the most desirable communities in St Charles County! Just minutes from restaurants, shopping, parks, golf courses, walking trails, wineries, food trucks, outdoor entertainment, summer concerts and everything people LOVE about living in Cottleville!

5. 2026-05-13
   historical $200,000 1501-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1501 chars)

   Rarely available and impossible to overlook, this maintenance-free 2 bed, 2 bath, 1,100+ sqft condo is heaping with charm and comfort while sitting in a location that you've been dreaming about just minutes away from the best Cottleville has to offer! Upon entering you are WOWED by soaring vaulted ceilings and TONS of windows keeping the open-concept living area bright and airy to make entertaining your friends a breeze! Head into your kitchen that features chic painted cabinets, a large island with breakfast bar, and appliances including dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator, and electric stovetop/oven! Enjoy your morning coffee in the adorable breakfast room or on the large covered private balcony! The primary suite is a whole separate oasis with soaring vaulted ceiling and a huge walk-in closet plus an ensuite that features dual adult-height vanity and a separate soaking tub and shower! The second bedroom is also spacious and flexible for a work from home office or reading nook! This condo in completed by a second bathroom and a generous laundry room! All style, no hassle, and surrounded by community that makes Cottleville one of the area's most loved places to be, don't be surprised when this one gets scooped up quickly! In one of the most desirable communities in St Charles County! Just minutes from restaurants, shopping, parks, golf courses, walking trails, wineries, food trucks, outdoor entertainment, summer concerts and everything people LOVE about living in Cottleville!

6. 2021-02-01
   soldstatus $148,000
7. 2021-01-27
   soldstatus Closed 922-char remark

   Show marketing remark (922 chars)

   Welcome home to 120 Lily Pad where you will find this adorable, 2 bed, 2 full bath condo located in Cottleville and desirable Francis Howell Schools. This 2nd floor unit is spacious and neutral w/ vaulted ceilings and an open floor plan. You will find an entryway as you enter and a laundry room just to your right before stepping into the vaulted great room w/ a large sliding door that brings in the beautiful daylight. Step through to the upgraded kitchen that offers a center island with breakfast bar, honey oak 42-inch cabinets, black appliances, pantry, and breakfast room that features tons of windows as well. Enjoy a divided bedroom floor plan w/ the secondary bedroom and full bath on one side of the condo and the vaulted master bedroom suite on the other side. The luxury master suite offers adult height vanity w/ dbl sinks, a walk-in closet, and a separate tub and shower. This condo is close to everything.

8. 2020-12-19
   status Pending 922-char remark

   Show marketing remark (922 chars)

   Welcome home to 120 Lily Pad where you will find this adorable, 2 bed, 2 full bath condo located in Cottleville and desirable Francis Howell Schools. This 2nd floor unit is spacious and neutral w/ vaulted ceilings and an open floor plan. You will find an entryway as you enter and a laundry room just to your right before stepping into the vaulted great room w/ a large sliding door that brings in the beautiful daylight. Step through to the upgraded kitchen that offers a center island with breakfast bar, honey oak 42-inch cabinets, black appliances, pantry, and breakfast room that features tons of windows as well. Enjoy a divided bedroom floor plan w/ the secondary bedroom and full bath on one side of the condo and the vaulted master bedroom suite on the other side. The luxury master suite offers adult height vanity w/ dbl sinks, a walk-in closet, and a separate tub and shower. This condo is close to everything.

9. 2020-12-01
   listed $149,900 Active 922-char remark

   Show marketing remark (922 chars)

   Welcome home to 120 Lily Pad where you will find this adorable, 2 bed, 2 full bath condo located in Cottleville and desirable Francis Howell Schools. This 2nd floor unit is spacious and neutral w/ vaulted ceilings and an open floor plan. You will find an entryway as you enter and a laundry room just to your right before stepping into the vaulted great room w/ a large sliding door that brings in the beautiful daylight. Step through to the upgraded kitchen that offers a center island with breakfast bar, honey oak 42-inch cabinets, black appliances, pantry, and breakfast room that features tons of windows as well. Enjoy a divided bedroom floor plan w/ the secondary bedroom and full bath on one side of the condo and the vaulted master bedroom suite on the other side. The luxury master suite offers adult height vanity w/ dbl sinks, a walk-in closet, and a separate tub and shower. This condo is close to everything.

10. 2020-11-25
    historical $149,900 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    Welcome home to 120 Lily Pad where you will find this adorable, 2 bed, 2 full bath condo located in Cottleville and desirable Francis Howell Schools. This 2nd floor unit is spacious and neutral w/ vaulted ceilings and an open floor plan. You will find an entryway as you enter and a laundry room just to your right before stepping into the vaulted great room w/ a large sliding door that brings in the beautiful daylight. Step through to the upgraded kitchen that offers a center island with breakfast bar, honey oak 42-inch cabinets, black appliances, pantry, and breakfast room that features tons of windows as well. Enjoy a divided bedroom floor plan w/ the secondary bedroom and full bath on one side of the condo and the vaulted master bedroom suite on the other side. The luxury master suite offers adult height vanity w/ dbl sinks, a walk-in closet, and a separate tub and shower. This condo is close to everything.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,853 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$87/yr (+$7/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,853
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,748
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Francis Howell R-III
• NCES district ID: 2928950
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $79,768
• Composite: 52.23/100
• National rank: #1602
• State rank: #11 of 324 in MO

Livability — Cottleville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #2398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottleville, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 74,962
• Household income: $96,393
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 964.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -315.50%
• Current HPI: 230.3362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-27 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-01 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-25 Coming Soon $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,853 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.