445 Oak Ave

Alliance, OH 44601

$124,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $979/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $23/mo
• Annual: $273/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.78%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($273/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (21.6% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $98k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#175 in OH, #2,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• Alliance City (town): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #536 of 656 in OH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 528 units permitted in Stark County in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stark County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $125k implies a 201% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Alliance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.