445 Oak Ave · Alliance, OH 44601

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1944 7,501 sqft lot Est $239k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath home conveniently located in Alliance and just a short distance from Maple Beach Park! This move-in-ready property offers a comfortable floor plan with numerous updates already completed for peace of mind. Major improvements include fresh paint and flooring throughout, updated kitchen with stove and refrigerator included, newer windows, a newer furnace and central air conditioning system, a roof that is less than 5 years old, an updated electric breaker panel, and a hot water heater that is approximately 5 years old. Outside, you'll appreciate the partially fenced yard, perfect for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining, along

Key facts

• 7,501 sq ft lot
• Built 1944
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Gravel parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($273/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.8% in Alliance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#175 in OH, #2,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• Alliance City (town): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #536 of 656 in OH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 528 units permitted in Stark County in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stark County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $125k implies a 201% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $97,866 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.78%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,040
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1226 Noble St	0.11mi	3/1.5	960 (0%)	3mo	$126,000	$131	91
16251 River St NE	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	976 (+2%)	9mo	$243,500	$249	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-18,847
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-14,771
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44601

• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $521/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $58	+0% $23	+5% $-13	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $-16	+0% $23	+5% $61	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $54	base $23	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1329 Auld St Alliance, OH	2.0	2.0	900	$895	$0.99	14d	1	1.07mi
1329 Auld St Unit 1329 Alliance, OH	2.0	2.0	900	$925	$1.03	14d	1	1.07mi
199 W Main St Alliance, OH	2.0	1.0	600	$860	$1.43	14d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $124,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,235 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$714/yr (+$59/mo · 137.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$521
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$940
• − Management: −$940
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$458
• After-tax cash flow: $731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alliance City
• NCES district ID: 3904349
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,326
• Composite: 34.54/100
• National rank: #5176
• State rank: #536 of 656 in OH

Livability — Alliance

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #2737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alliance, OH
• County: Stark County · 272,865 people
• City population: 32,696
• Metro: Canton-Massillon, OH
• Population (ZIP): 32,696
• Household income: $61,965
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Stark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 373,708 people
• By 2030: 371,245 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 361,331 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 345,290 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 302,669 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 238,870 · -36.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stark

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 38.6% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.5 2016: R+17.4 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.62%
• Current HPI: 224.9507
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Canton-Massillon, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+524.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $124,900 MLSNOW
• 2003-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records
• 1998-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-16.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $521 · +74.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.