29 Woodland Ridge Rd

Bolton Landing, NY 12814

$849,900B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,644 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$1,416
• HOA: −$79
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,100
• Net cashflow: $1,948/mo
• Annual: $23,370/yr
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.82%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $237,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $850k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $850k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($837k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $837k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $91k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,015 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Bolton Central School District (rural): math 75% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #110 of 755 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$146k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 0.4% in Bolton Landing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.