29 Woodland Ridge Rd · Bolton Landing, NY 12814

$849,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 1987 0.25 ac lot $79/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lake George views, privacy and a prime Bolton Landing location define this Woodland Ridge home. Perched above the lake with views of Tongue Mountain and The Narrows, the property offers a peaceful setting just minutes from downtown restaurants, shops and beaches. The main floor includes a lakeview primary suite, Vermont Castings gas fireplace and screened porch. Two upstairs bedrooms open to a second-story deck capturing even more of the lake and mountain scenery. Geothermal heating, whole home generator, high-speed internet and a stamped concrete driveway provide modern efficiency. Located in a quiet residential community with low taxes and no short-term rentals.

Key facts

• Second-story deck
• Lake george views
• Screened porch

Tags

• LAKE GEORGE VIEWS
• BOLTON LANDING LOCATION
• LAKEVIEW PRIMARY SUITE
• VERMONT CASTINGS GAS FIREPLACE
• SCREENED PORCH
• SECOND-STORY DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $850k).
• Recommended offer: $837k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 0.4% in Bolton Landing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,015 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Bolton Central School District (rural): math 75% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #110 of 755 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $91k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$146k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($837k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $837,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.82%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $587,117
• Equity at exit: $765,657

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.86×
• Total profit: $1,631,815
• Equity at exit: $1,651,169

Cash invested: $237,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12814

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,062 /mo · $12,748/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,100
• Net cashflow: $1,948

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,535

Max offer price $849,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,535	-5% $2,241	+0% $1,948	+5% $1,654	+10% $1,360
Rent	-10% $1,158	-5% $1,553	+0% $1,948	+5% $2,343	+10% $2,738
Rate	-1.0pp $2,376	-0.5pp $2,164	base $1,948	+0.5pp $1,727	+1.0pp $1,503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,475
• Closing costs: $25,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Sunrise Ln Lake George, NY	3.0	2.0	1344	$10,000	$7.44	45d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr
• Likely covers: gasinternet

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $849,900 Active
3. 2026-01-20
   historical
4. 2025-11-04
   price $868,000
5. 2025-09-14
   price $895,000
6. 2025-07-26
   price $949,900
7. 2025-06-26
   listed $1,050,000 Active
8. 2019-02-28
   historical
9. 2007-06-01
   historical
10. 2007-04-02
    listed $719,900
11. 2004-03-09
    listed $719,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $120,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,608
• − Property taxes: −$12,748
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,600
• − Management: −$9,600
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$24,724
• Taxable income: $10,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,525
• After-tax cash flow: $20,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605010
• Math proficiency: 75% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,568
• Composite: 67.0/100
• National rank: #863
• State rank: #110 of 755 in NY

Livability — Bolton Landing

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1015
• US rank: #19844

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime D+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolton Landing, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,145

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.75%
• Current HPI: 550.304
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+18.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $849,900 Global MLS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $868,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $895,000 Global MLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $949,900 Global MLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $1,050,000 Global MLS
• 2019-02-28 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2007-06-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2007-04-02 Listed $719,900 Global MLS
• 2004-03-09 Listed $719,900 Global MLS