21210 Arriw Hwy # 48

Charter Oak, CA 91724

$139,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,649/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $1,269/mo
• Annual: $15,223/yr
• Cap rate: 17.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.11%
• DSCR: 2.74
• 1% rule: 1.91%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#452 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, commute A, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charter Oak Unified (suburban): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #387 of 1,400 in CA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 3.0% in Charter Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.