501 Ryder Rd

Scotts Valley, CA 95066

$550,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Coming Soon · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,854/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$757
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $-597/mo
• Annual: $-7,165/yr
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.13%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-597 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $445k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (29.9% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($534k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $385k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#152 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Scotts Valley Unified (suburban): math 56% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #63 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Brook Knoll Elementary (math 61% / reading 60%, grade B-, #226 of 1,571 statewide, top 14%, 464 students, 12% FRL); Scotts Valley Middle (math 57% / reading 66%, grade B+, #52 of 498 statewide, top 11%, 481 students, 12% FRL); Scotts Valley High (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #205 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 690 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $550k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.5% in Scotts Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($151k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.