190 Garden St

Tavernier, FL 33070

$265,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built 1966 · Manufactured · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,879/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$739
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $146/mo
• Annual: $1,755/yr
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.26%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#807 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $172k; list at $265k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 1.1% in Tavernier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.