2 Aspen at Elkhorn Ridge Mnrs

Truesdale, MO 63380

$249,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,279 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 296 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,795/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-309/mo
• Annual: $-3,707/yr
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.30%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (28.2% below list).
• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#785 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County R-III (town): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #172 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Black Hawk Middle (math 25% / reading 43%, grade F, #255 of 391 statewide, top 66%, 698 students, 43% FRL); Warrenton High (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #216 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 997 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 424 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (126 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Truesdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.