2 Aspen at Elkhorn Ridge Mnrs · Truesdale, MO 63380

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,279 sqft · SingleFamily · 296 Days on market

$195/sqft · 21% below area Est $315k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize your dream home! LIST PRICE and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Aspen Ranch. Pricing will vary depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features a stunning open great room with available vaulted ceilings or gas fireplace. Kitchen includes extensive cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar open to the great room. The breakfast room hosts sliding doors that can open to a patio or deck. The master suite includes walk-in closet, large window, and additional selections including coffered ceiling, double vanity or walk-in shower in master bath. Two car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Personal selections include bay windows, main floor laundry, and great room extension. Enjoy peace of mind with McBride Homes’ 10 year builders warranty and incredible customer service! Elkhorn Ridge, located off Hwy 47 and Veterans Memorial, is a master planned community featuring 190 homesites in a great location just minutes from I-70. Display photos shown.

Key facts

• Extensive cabinetry
• Gas fireplace
• Open great room

Tags

• OPEN GREAT ROOM
• AVAILABLE VAULTED CEILINGS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• EXTENSIVE CABINETRY
• OPTIONAL BREAKFAST BAR
• SLIDING DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Truesdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#785 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County R-III (town): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #172 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Black Hawk Middle (math 25% / reading 43%, grade F, #255 of 391 statewide, top 66%, 698 students, 43% FRL); Warrenton High (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #216 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 997 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 424 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (126 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $179,500 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.30%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,261
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -20.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
888 Woodbridge Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,279 (0%)	15mo	$310,354	$243	84
706 Courtshire Xing	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,345 (+5%)	2mo	$282,500	$210	83
891 Woodbridge Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,279 (0%)	19mo	$299,900	$234	82
863 Woodbridge Way	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (-5%)	10mo	$269,900	$222	73
102 Heritage Landing Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+6%)	10mo	$305,000	$226	73
705 Courtshire Xing	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (-5%)	12mo	$269,900	$222	72
722 Courtshire Xing	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,405 (+10%)	4mo	$277,435	$197	72
884 Woodbridge Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+9%)	12mo	$328,000	$235	71
857 Woodbridge Way	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (+10%)	7mo	$259,900	$185	66
865 Woodbridge Way	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,405 (+10%)	13mo	$295,707	$210	65
867 Woodbridge Way	0.11mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,214 (-5%)	21mo	$289,900	$239	62
861 Woodbridge Way	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,405 (+10%)	18mo	$279,900	$199	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,356
• Equity at exit: $103,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $46,372
• Equity at exit: $153,492

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63380

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $205,194

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-223	+0% $-309	+5% $-395	+10% $-482
Rent	-10% $-451	-5% $-380	+0% $-309	+5% $-238	+10% $-167
Rate	-1.0pp $-183	-0.5pp $-245	base $-309	+0.5pp $-374	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16901 Cattail Bottoms Dr Warrenton, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1232	$1,795	$1.46	0d	7	1.12mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 293 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 292 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 291 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 290 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 288 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 284 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 283 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 282 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 278 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 277 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 276 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 275 DOM
14. 2025-12-02
    price $249,900 1023-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1023 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize your dream home! LIST PRICE and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Aspen Ranch. Pricing will vary depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features a stunning open great room with available vaulted ceilings or gas fireplace. Kitchen includes extensive cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar open to the great room. The breakfast room hosts sliding doors that can open to a patio or deck. The master suite includes walk-in closet, large window, and additional selections including coffered ceiling, double vanity or walk-in shower in master bath. Two car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Personal selections include bay windows, main floor laundry, and great room extension. Enjoy peace of mind with McBride Homes’ 10 year builders warranty and incredible customer service! Elkhorn Ridge, located off Hwy 47 and Veterans Memorial, is a master planned community featuring 190 homesites in a great location just minutes from I-70. Display photos shown.

15. 2025-08-29
    listed $253,900 Active 1023-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1023 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To Be Built Home ready to personalize your dream home! LIST PRICE and PHOTOS are for 3BR, 2BA Aspen Ranch. Pricing will vary depending on interior/exterior selections. This home features a stunning open great room with available vaulted ceilings or gas fireplace. Kitchen includes extensive cabinetry, plus optional breakfast bar open to the great room. The breakfast room hosts sliding doors that can open to a patio or deck. The master suite includes walk-in closet, large window, and additional selections including coffered ceiling, double vanity or walk-in shower in master bath. Two car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Personal selections include bay windows, main floor laundry, and great room extension. Enjoy peace of mind with McBride Homes’ 10 year builders warranty and incredible customer service! Elkhorn Ridge, located off Hwy 47 and Veterans Memorial, is a master planned community featuring 190 homesites in a great location just minutes from I-70. Display photos shown.

16. 2024-04-05
    historical
17. 2024-03-25
    price $264,900
18. 2024-02-16
    price $254,900
19. 2024-01-23
    listed $239,900 Active
20. 2023-11-20
    historical
21. 2023-11-03
    listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$8,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,961
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County R-III
• NCES district ID: 2931050
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,644
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5690
• State rank: #172 of 324 in MO

Livability — Truesdale

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #23955

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truesdale, MO
• City population: 980
• Population (ZIP): 980

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,105 people
• By 2030: 35,605 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 36,047 · +2.7%
• By 2050: 35,479 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 33,325 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 28,282 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Estonian 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.7% · R 74.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.9pp toward R · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+45.6 2012: R+26.8 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.38%
• Current HPI: 126.7291
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+4.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $249,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Listed $253,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-05 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $264,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-16 Price Changed $254,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-23 Listed $239,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-20 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-03 Listed $239,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid