14061 Turning Leaf Dr

Alafaya, FL 32828

$5,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,531/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax + insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $1,965/mo
• Annual: $23,578/yr
• Cap rate: 477.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 1684.16%
• DSCR: 75.94
• 1% rule: 50.62%
• Cash to close: $1,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $5k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $17 of equity ($35 loan paydown + $-18 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes Elementary (math 79% / reading 76%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 739 students, 35% FRL); Avalon Middle (math 70% / reading 69%, grade A, #66 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 911 students, 29% FRL); Timber Creek High (math 46% / reading 72%, grade C+, #113 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 3,573 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 56% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orange average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 329 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 477.9% vs local median 3.4% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.