14061 Turning Leaf Dr · Alafaya, FL 32828

$5,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2005 2,614 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BACK ON MARKET. CONTRACT FELL THROUGH This town home is immaculate and move in ready. Avalon Lakes is an beautifully maintained community close to major highways, restaurants, shopping and entertainment. Home includes washer and dryer as well as all kitchen appliances. The expansive great room off the kitchen allows for entertainment to spill out on to the generous screened patio with views of the rear park and pond. Great for pets and people. The laundry room is conveniently off the kitchen with newer washer and dryer included. A half bath downstairs adds further ease of living. Another bath upstairs services the two second bedrooms and of course there is the on suite bath in the Master Suite. You have to see this home. Use your own touches to make it your own. It will be yours for years to come.

Key facts

• 2,614 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned P-D

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Construction materials: see remarks
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other roof

Interior

• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: One total room; Other flooring

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$453,412) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 477.9% vs local median 3.4% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes Elementary (math 79% / reading 76%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 739 students, 35% FRL); Avalon Middle (math 70% / reading 69%, grade A, #66 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 911 students, 29% FRL); Timber Creek High (math 46% / reading 72%, grade C+, #113 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 3,573 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 56% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orange average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 329 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17 of equity ($35 loan paydown + $-18 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 50.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 477.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 1684.16%
• DSCR: 75.94
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $453,412
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10350 Evening Horizon	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-10%)	10mo	$518,490	$334	65
16036 River Pointe Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,622 (-6%)	13mo	$469,000	$289	60
15333 Veramonte Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-9%)	10mo	$412,500	$263	59
14314 Sapphire Bay Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,846 (+7%)	21mo	$460,000	$249	57
13925 Morning Frost Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,855 (+8%)	23mo	$440,000	$237	51
307 Bella Vida Blvd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,825 (+6%)	11mo	$455,000	$249	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.37% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 86.37×
• Total profit: $119,515
• Equity at exit: $1,361

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 175.70×
• Total profit: $244,587
• Equity at exit: $1,565

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32828

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,531 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $1,965

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 17%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,968	-5% $1,967	+0% $1,965	+5% $1,963	+10% $1,961
Rent	-10% $1,765	-5% $1,865	+0% $1,965	+5% $2,065	+10% $2,165
Rate	-1.0pp $1,967	-0.5pp $1,966	base $1,965	+0.5pp $1,964	+1.0pp $1,962

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1274 Falling Star Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1942	$2,360	$1.22	0d	1	0.08mi
14244 Turning Leaf Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1983	$2,600	$1.31	6d	1	0.12mi
538 Terrace Spring Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	1834	$2,650	$1.44	26d	1	0.13mi
13926 Dove Wing Ct Unit 1 Orlando, FL	3.0	3.0	1710	$2,400	$1.40	6d	1	0.13mi
519 Terrace Spring Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	2089	$2,395	$1.15	18d	1	0.17mi
519 Terrace Spring Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	2089	$2,395	$1.15	0d	1	0.17mi
1532 Shallcross Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	3.5	1719	$2,500	$1.45	9d	1	0.22mi
16617 Cedar Crest Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,600	$1.44	13d	1	0.33mi
16546 Cedar Crest Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1472	$2,200	$1.49	6d	1	0.39mi
15132 Windmill Harbor Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,400	$1.49	24d	1	0.40mi
15102 Windmill Harbor Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1798	$2,500	$1.39	0d	1	0.41mi
15217 Windmill Harbor Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,295	$1.37	0d	1	0.43mi
1055 Rock Harbor Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1762	$2,300	$1.31	18d	1	0.45mi
16436 Cedar Crest Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1472	$2,000	$1.36	0d	1	0.49mi
14341 Windigo Ln Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,850	$1.29	0d	1	0.55mi
771 Spring Palms Loop Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$2,600	$1.59	24d	1	0.55mi
771 Spring Palms Loop Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$2,600	$1.59	26d	1	0.55mi
1043 Spring Palms Loop Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1559	$2,300	$1.48	17d	1	0.59mi
1025 Spring Palms Loop Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$2,790	$1.71	26d	1	0.60mi
944 Spring Palms Loop Orlando, FL	3.0	3.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	26d	1	0.61mi
14057 Wild Majestic St Unit 1 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$2,250	$2.03	0d	1	1.01mi
2302 Abey Blanco Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1701	$2,560	$1.50	0d	1	1.16mi
1439 Sunningdale Way Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,550	$1.35	24d	1	1.21mi
11950 Sands Cv Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1842	$2,499	$1.36	0d	1	1.35mi
2264 Hillshire Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	2140	$3,000	$1.40	4d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $5,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $5,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-27
   listed $5,000 Active
4. 2025-02-03
   price $363,700
5. 2024-12-10
   status Active
6. 2024-11-27
   status Active
7. 2024-11-27
   price $364,700
8. 2024-11-26
   historical
9. 2024-11-18
   historical
10. 2024-10-04
    price $355,900
11. 2024-08-09
    price $379,900
12. 2024-07-16
    price $389,900
13. 2024-06-30
    price $397,900
14. 2024-06-26
    listed $409,900 Active
15. 2021-10-22
    soldstatus $280,000
16. 2021-10-15
    soldstatus $280,000 Closed 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    BACK ON MARKET. CONTRACT FELL THROUGH This town home is immaculate and move in ready. Avalon Lakes is an beautifully maintained community close to major highways, restaurants, shopping and entertainment. Home includes washer and dryer as well as all kitchen appliances. The expansive great room off the kitchen allows for entertainment to spill out on to the generous screened patio with views of the rear park and pond. Great for pets and people. The laundry room is conveniently off the kitchen with newer washer and dryer included. A half bath downstairs adds further ease of living. Another bath upstairs services the two second bedrooms and of course there is the on suite bath in the Master Suite. You have to see this home. Use your own touches to make it your own. It will be yours for years to come.

17. 2021-07-23
    status Pending 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    BACK ON MARKET. CONTRACT FELL THROUGH This town home is immaculate and move in ready. Avalon Lakes is an beautifully maintained community close to major highways, restaurants, shopping and entertainment. Home includes washer and dryer as well as all kitchen appliances. The expansive great room off the kitchen allows for entertainment to spill out on to the generous screened patio with views of the rear park and pond. Great for pets and people. The laundry room is conveniently off the kitchen with newer washer and dryer included. A half bath downstairs adds further ease of living. Another bath upstairs services the two second bedrooms and of course there is the on suite bath in the Master Suite. You have to see this home. Use your own touches to make it your own. It will be yours for years to come.

18. 2021-07-17
    status Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    BACK ON MARKET. CONTRACT FELL THROUGH This town home is immaculate and move in ready. Avalon Lakes is an beautifully maintained community close to major highways, restaurants, shopping and entertainment. Home includes washer and dryer as well as all kitchen appliances. The expansive great room off the kitchen allows for entertainment to spill out on to the generous screened patio with views of the rear park and pond. Great for pets and people. The laundry room is conveniently off the kitchen with newer washer and dryer included. A half bath downstairs adds further ease of living. Another bath upstairs services the two second bedrooms and of course there is the on suite bath in the Master Suite. You have to see this home. Use your own touches to make it your own. It will be yours for years to come.

19. 2021-07-13
    status Pending 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    BACK ON MARKET. CONTRACT FELL THROUGH This town home is immaculate and move in ready. Avalon Lakes is an beautifully maintained community close to major highways, restaurants, shopping and entertainment. Home includes washer and dryer as well as all kitchen appliances. The expansive great room off the kitchen allows for entertainment to spill out on to the generous screened patio with views of the rear park and pond. Great for pets and people. The laundry room is conveniently off the kitchen with newer washer and dryer included. A half bath downstairs adds further ease of living. Another bath upstairs services the two second bedrooms and of course there is the on suite bath in the Master Suite. You have to see this home. Use your own touches to make it your own. It will be yours for years to come.

20. 2021-07-07
    price $279,000 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    BACK ON MARKET. CONTRACT FELL THROUGH This town home is immaculate and move in ready. Avalon Lakes is an beautifully maintained community close to major highways, restaurants, shopping and entertainment. Home includes washer and dryer as well as all kitchen appliances. The expansive great room off the kitchen allows for entertainment to spill out on to the generous screened patio with views of the rear park and pond. Great for pets and people. The laundry room is conveniently off the kitchen with newer washer and dryer included. A half bath downstairs adds further ease of living. Another bath upstairs services the two second bedrooms and of course there is the on suite bath in the Master Suite. You have to see this home. Use your own touches to make it your own. It will be yours for years to come.

21. 2021-06-14
    listed $292,000 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    BACK ON MARKET. CONTRACT FELL THROUGH This town home is immaculate and move in ready. Avalon Lakes is an beautifully maintained community close to major highways, restaurants, shopping and entertainment. Home includes washer and dryer as well as all kitchen appliances. The expansive great room off the kitchen allows for entertainment to spill out on to the generous screened patio with views of the rear park and pond. Great for pets and people. The laundry room is conveniently off the kitchen with newer washer and dryer included. A half bath downstairs adds further ease of living. Another bath upstairs services the two second bedrooms and of course there is the on suite bath in the Master Suite. You have to see this home. Use your own touches to make it your own. It will be yours for years to come.

22. 2018-03-22
    soldstatus $215,000
23. 2018-03-16
    soldstatus $215,000 Sold
24. 2018-02-09
    status Pending
25. 2018-01-12
    listed $220,000 Active
26. 2006-05-23
    soldstatus $248,000
27. 2006-05-15
    soldstatus $248,000
28. 2006-04-05
    listed $258,000
29. 2006-03-26
    historical
30. 2006-02-01
    listed $264,000
31. 2006-02-01
    historical
32. 2006-01-12
    listed $270,000
33. 2005-04-05
    soldstatus $838,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,430
• − Management: −$2,430
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $24,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,997
• After-tax cash flow: $17,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alafaya

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1076

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alafaya, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 131,972
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 69,202
• Household income: $101,767
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2213.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 23% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Current HPI: 284.5182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $363,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $364,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $355,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $379,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $389,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-30 Price Changed $397,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-26 Listed $409,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-15 Sold (MLS) $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-07 Price Changed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-14 Listed $292,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-16 Sold (MLS) $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-12 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $248,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-15 Sold (MLS) $248,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-05 Listed $258,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-01 Listed $264,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-12 Listed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $838,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,120 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.