328 Michael Ln

Ironton, MO 63650

$43,500B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 429 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,202/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$228
• Tax + insurance: −$506
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $215/mo
• Annual: $2,580/yr
• Cap rate: 23.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.21%
• DSCR: 3.81
• 1% rule: 2.76%
• Cash to close: $12,180

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $44k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $38k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($301 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#398 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Arcadia Valley R-II (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #115 of 324 in MO (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arcadia Valley Elem. (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 397 students, 99% FRL); Arcadia Valley High (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #69 of 521 statewide, top 15%, 343 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 55% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Iron County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Iron County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (46%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.