209 Urban Rd

Lackawaxen, PA 18428

$198,900C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $785/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $55,692

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($785/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 13160% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $199k implies a 232% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.