1148 Nassau Dr

Holiday Shores, IL 62025

$220,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,532 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,456/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-489/mo
• Annual: $-5,873/yr
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.53%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-489 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (39.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (33.8% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#558 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Edwardsville CUSD 7 (suburban): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #142 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $220k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.