Heron Falls Plan

Holley, NY 14470

$124,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 877 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,285/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$384
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $509/mo
• Annual: $6,111/yr
• Cap rate: 14.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.83%
• DSCR: 2.33
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $20,485

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 877 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $506 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holley Elementary School (math 33% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,356 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 543 students, 56% FRL); Holley Junior Senior High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,100 statewide, top 98%, 423 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 4.6% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 877 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: foundation/structure — No visible foundation/structure
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals
• Major: exterior/siding — No visible exterior/siding
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint
• Major: roof — No visible roof
• Major: windows — No visible windows