Heron Falls Plan · Holley, NY 14470

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 877 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 877 days

🏗️ New construction. The $124,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $73,161.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 4.6% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holley Elementary School (math 33% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,356 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 543 students, 56% FRL); Holley Junior Senior High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,100 statewide, top 98%, 423 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $506 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 877 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 877 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.83%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,161
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: 70.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
283 Sunset Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	11mo	$47,500	$33	70
291 Sunset Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	18mo	$70,000	$49	64
155 Trinity Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	13mo	$55,000	$36	62
4694 Hall Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	15mo	$170,000	$126	58
903 Cobblestone Ct	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (+11%)	12mo	$117,000	$78	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $20,597
• Equity at exit: $10,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $59,777
• Equity at exit: $6,326

Cash invested: $20,485 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14470

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $640

Max offer price $73,161

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $560	-5% $535	+0% $509	+5% $484	+10% $459
Rent	-10% $408	-5% $458	+0% $509	+5% $560	+10% $611
Rate	-1.0pp $546	-0.5pp $528	base $509	+0.5pp $490	+1.0pp $471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,290
• Closing costs: $2,195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 877 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 874 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 873 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 872 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 871 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 869 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 866 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 865 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 864 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 863 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 859 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 858 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 857 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 856 DOM
15. 2024-01-26
    listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,098
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$366
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − Depreciation: −$2,128
• Taxable income: $5,259
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,262
• After-tax cash flow: $4,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates across all systems and areas, significantly impacting its value. Immediate action is needed to stabilize the structure and improve its condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major foundation/structure — No visible foundation/structure
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals
• Major exterior/siding — No visible exterior/siding
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint
• Major roof — No visible roof
• Major windows — No visible windows
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen
• Major bath — No visible bathroom
• Major flooring — No visible flooring

Value-add opportunities

• Both foundation/structure repair — Stabilizes the home and improves safety
• Both HVAC/mechanicals upgrade — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency
• Both exterior/siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and durability
• Both interior walls/paint refresh — Enhances aesthetics and value
• Both roof replacement — Ensures long-term durability and safety
• Both window replacement — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal
• Both kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes and increases functionality
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
foundation/structure · No visible foundation/structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior/siding · No visible exterior/siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No visible windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
bath · No visible bathroom	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both foundation/structure repair — Stabilizes the home and improves safety ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanicals upgrade — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both exterior/siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both interior walls/paint refresh — Enhances aesthetics and value ↑
• Both roof replacement — Ensures long-term durability and safety ↑
• Both window replacement — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑
• Both kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes and increases functionality ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,177
• Composite: 35.13/100
• National rank: #5013
• State rank: #505 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #13281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,765

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.80%
• Current HPI: 287.9167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-01-26 Listed $124,900 Zillow