The Valencia Plan

Shreveport, LA 71119

$59,999F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 421 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax + insurance: −$636
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-585/mo
• Annual: $-7,018/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.39%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $35,220

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-585 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $41k (31.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 421 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $41k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $869 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 421 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen appliances — Significant wear and tear
• Major: bathroom fixtures — Significant wear and tear
• Major: exterior paint — Significant wear and tear
• Major: flooring — Significant wear and tear
• Major: interior paint — Significant wear and tear
• Major: windows — Significant wear and tear