The Valencia Plan · Shreveport, LA 71119

$59,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 421 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Pinecrest, a spacious and scenic all-age, pet-friendly community nestled in Shreveport, LA. With rolling hills and plenty of grassy open spaces, Pinecrest offers a beautiful and relaxing setting for residents of all ages. Enjoy a refreshing swim in the pool, shoot hoops on the basketball court, or gather with friends in the clubhouse. The community also features convenient laundry facilities and a playground for endless family fun. Pinecrest is the perfect place to enjoy an active lifestyle in a welcoming environment.

Key facts

• Laundry facilities
• Basketball court
• Grassy open spaces

Tags

• PET FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• GRASSY OPEN SPACES
• REFRESHING SWIM IN THE POOL
• BASKETBALL COURT
• GATHER IN THE CLUBHOUSE
• LAUNDRY FACILITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $59,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $125,785.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-585 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $41k (31.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $869 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 421 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,162 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 421 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.39%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,785
• List price: $59,999
• Delta: -52.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -56.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-57,354
• Equity at exit: $18,755

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.75×
• Total profit: $-96,784
• Equity at exit: $10,876

Cash invested: $35,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71119

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$157 /mo · $1,887/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,640

Max offer price $41,162

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,446
• Closing costs: $3,774
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3073 Gorton Rd Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	1244	$900	$0.72	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,999 Active 421 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,999 Active 420 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,999 Active 419 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,999 Active 418 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,999 Active 416 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,999 Active 415 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,999 Active 413 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,999 Active 412 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,999 Active 411 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,999 Active 410 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,999 Active 407 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,999 Active 406 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,999 Active 405 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,999 Active 404 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,999 Active 403 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,999 Active 402 DOM
17. 2025-04-23
    listed $59,999 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Welcome to Pinecrest, a spacious and scenic all-age, pet-friendly community nestled in Shreveport, LA. With rolling hills and plenty of grassy open spaces, Pinecrest offers a beautiful and relaxing setting for residents of all ages. Enjoy a refreshing swim in the pool, shoot hoops on the basketball court, or gather with friends in the clubhouse. The community also features convenient laundry facilities and a playground for endless family fun. Pinecrest is the perfect place to enjoy an active lifestyle in a welcoming environment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,046
• − Property taxes: −$1,887
• − Insurance: −$5,747
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$3,659
• Taxable loss: −$9,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,224
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to current standards, significantly impacting its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — Significant wear and tear
• Major bathroom fixtures — Significant wear and tear
• Major exterior paint — Significant wear and tear
• Major flooring — Significant wear and tear
• Major interior paint — Significant wear and tear
• Major windows — Significant wear and tear
• Major HVAC system — Age and lack of recent maintenance
• Major landscaping — Significant wear and tear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern, energy-efficient appliances would attract more buyers.
• Resale bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern, energy-efficient fixtures would attract more buyers.
• Both exterior paint — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value.
• Both flooring — Upgrading to modern, durable flooring would improve home value and attract more renters.
• Both interior paint — Fresh paint would improve home value and attract more renters.
• Both windows — Upgrading to energy-efficient windows would improve home value and attract more renters.
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading to a modern, energy-efficient HVAC system would improve home value and attract more renters.
• Both landscaping — Upgrading the landscaping would improve curb appeal and attract more renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Age and lack of recent maintenance	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern, energy-efficient appliances would attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern, energy-efficient fixtures would attract more buyers. ↑
• Both exterior paint — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both flooring — Upgrading to modern, durable flooring would improve home value and attract more renters. ↑
• Both interior paint — Fresh paint would improve home value and attract more renters. ↑
• Both windows — Upgrading to energy-efficient windows would improve home value and attract more renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading to a modern, energy-efficient HVAC system would improve home value and attract more renters. ↑
• Both landscaping — Upgrading the landscaping would improve curb appeal and attract more renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Shreveport

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #19730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shreveport, LA
• City population: 164,123
• Population (ZIP): 10,364

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 34% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.76%
• Current HPI: 129.6866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-23 Listed $59,999 Zillow