515 Tallowood Rd #15

Houston, TX 77024

$225,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,361/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$617
• HOA: −$706
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-638/mo
• Annual: $-7,652/yr
• Cap rate: 2.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.15%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-638 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (44.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frostwood El (math 84% / reading 73%, grade A, #48 of 4,322 statewide, top 1%, 798 students, 12% FRL); Memorial Middle (math 81% / reading 70%, grade A, #33 of 1,662 statewide, top 2%, 1,281 students, 12% FRL); Memorial H S (math 73% / reading 85%, grade A-, #50 of 1,632 statewide, top 3%, 2,555 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 54% district-wide (41 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+31 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Spring Branch ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.