3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,410 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 41 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,868/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax + insurance
−$388
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$392
Net cashflow
$301/mo
Annual
$3,617/yr
Cap rate
8.70%
Cash-on-cash
8.61%
DSCR
1.38
1% rule
1.25%
Cash to close
$42,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 662 students, 59% FRL, charter); Lake Wales Senior High School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,586 students, 64% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NCFC7S9ZMSNCVD
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29