275 Mapleview Dr

Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$199,000C

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,355 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,244/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$585
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $144/mo
• Annual: $1,728/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holmes Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 281 students, 78% FRL); Kenmore West Senior High School (math 74% / reading 57%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 1,358 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 33% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.