275 Mapleview Dr · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$199,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,355 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1951 5,935 sqft lot Est $241k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4-bedroom home located in a desirable Tonawanda neighborhood, just steps from a beautiful park and close to local golf courses. This property offers great potential with generously sized rooms, a functional layout, and plenty of natural light throughout. The home features a large living area, formal dining space, and ample bedroom sizes perfect for a family living or guests. Covered front porch to enjoy your coffee on those warm sunny days. Some of the homes attributes include a brand-new sump pump, New HVAC system in 2025 and A/C in 2018. The 2-car garage has an attached shed to store all your lawn mower and snow removal equipment. Enjoy the connivence of nearby outdoor recreation

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large living area
• Formal dining space

Tags

• STEPS FROM A BEAUTIFUL PARK
• CLOSE TO LOCAL GOLF COURSES
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• FORMAL DINING SPACE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BRAND-NEW SUMP PUMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,190
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
275 Mapleview Dr	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,355 (0%)	1mo	$227,000	$168	99
42 Parkedge Ct	0.11mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,362 (+0%)	7mo	$243,000	$178	84
306 Dupont Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+1%)	19mo	$233,000	$170	68
959 Riverview Blvd	0.04mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,163 (-14%)	7mo	$206,700	$178	61
184 Dunlop Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,354 (-0%)	22mo	$205,000	$151	60
97 Dunlop Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,365 (+1%)	12mo	$250,000	$183	60
250 Dupont Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,508 (+11%)	7mo	$220,000	$146	57
126 Parkedge Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,326 (-2%)	16mo	$209,900	$158	54
22 Elmview Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-15%)	9mo	$214,000	$186	50
49 Elmview Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,212 (-11%)	22mo	$230,000	$190	49
210 Dupont Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,228 (-9%)	17mo	$120,000	$98	48
308 Lowell Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,249 (-8%)	6mo	$243,000	$195	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-14,096
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $39,262
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,244 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$502 /mo · $6,029/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $200	+0% $144	+5% $88	+10% $31
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $55	+0% $144	+5% $233	+10% $321
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $195	base $144	+0.5pp $92	+1.0pp $40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36-46 Crowell Ct Unit 40 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	25d	1	0.45mi
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	25d	1	1.03mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	3d	1	1.05mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	25d	1	1.07mi
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	11d	1	1.40mi
480 W Hazeltine Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	989	$1,900	$1.92	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,029 · $502/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,029 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$6,029
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,154
• − Management: −$2,154
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$321
• After-tax cash flow: $2,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $199,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,029 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.