4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,251 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 199 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,931/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,408
Tax + insurance
−$765
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$615
Net cashflow
$-857/mo
Annual
$-10,288/yr
Cap rate
4.05%
Cash-on-cash
-8.00%
DSCR
0.64
1% rule
0.64%
Cash to close
$128,547
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-857 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (16.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (26.6% below list).
It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $293k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#28 in MO, #2,671 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Liberty 53 (suburban): math 41% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 324 in MO (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Warren Hills Elem. (math 48% / reading 60%, grade C, #215 of 1,115 statewide, top 20%, 603 students, 20% FRL); South Valley Middle (math 33% / reading 53%, grade D-, #134 of 391 statewide, top 35%, 791 students, 18% FRL); Liberty North High School (math 25% / reading 75%, grade D+, #116 of 521 statewide, top 22%, 2,326 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.5%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 341 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
Clay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NCKY21DKBEA4N8
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29