1366 S Avenida Polar Unit G205

Tucson, AZ 85710

$69,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Built 1964 · Condo · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,060/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$397
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-437/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $69k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-437/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $64k (7.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Wheeler Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #600 of 1,109 statewide, top 56%, 416 students, 73% FRL); Ida Flood Dodge Traditional Middle Magnet School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 396 students, 52% FRL); Palo Verde High Magnet School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 691 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 259 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?