309 W Fourth St St

Miller, MO 65707

$72,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 354 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,008/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $299/mo
• Annual: $3,585/yr
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.78%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 354 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#405 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Miller R-II (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #276 of 324 in MO (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 354 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Signs of water damage and possible leakage.
• Major: exterior paint — Faded and peeling paint on the exterior.
• Major: windows — Broken or missing windows.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation surrounding the house, detracting from curb appeal.
• Major: interior walls/paint — No photos provided, but the exterior suggests the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.
• Major: flooring — No photos provided, but the exterior suggests the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.