309 W Fourth St St · Miller, MO 65707

$72,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 354 Days on market

Built 1940 Poor condition 0.45 ac lot $72/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ENDLESS UPSIDE -- renovate the existing structure or start fresh and build the home or project of your dreams. Nestled among beautiful mature trees on a generously sized lot, this location exudes a peaceful, small-town charm. With possible commercial potential (buyer to verify), this is a rare find that combines flexibility, character, and location. Don't miss out!

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• Commercial potential
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• COMMERCIAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#405 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Miller R-II (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #276 of 324 in MO (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 354 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 354 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.78%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,406
• List price: $72,000
• Delta: -57.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 W 1st St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,090 (+9%)	10mo	$158,000	$145	59
407 W Adamson St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+10%)	4mo	$192,500	$175	56
401 W Adamson St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+10%)	11mo	$199,900	$182	50
207 E Highway Dd St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,118 (+12%)	21mo	$170,000	$152	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $7,376
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $30,986
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65707

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $630

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $324	+0% $299	+5% $274	+10% $249
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $259	+0% $299	+5% $339	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $317	base $299	+0.5pp $280	+1.0pp $261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,000 Active 354 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $72,000 Active 353 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $72,000 Active 349 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $72,000 Active 348 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $72,000 Active 347 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $72,000 Active 346 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $72,000 Active 345 DOM
8. 2025-12-20
   status Active 367-char remark

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   ENDLESS UPSIDE -- renovate the existing structure or start fresh and build the home or project of your dreams. Nestled among beautiful mature trees on a generously sized lot, this location exudes a peaceful, small-town charm. With possible commercial potential (buyer to verify), this is a rare find that combines flexibility, character, and location. Don't miss out!

9. 2025-08-09
   price $72,000 367-char remark

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   ENDLESS UPSIDE -- renovate the existing structure or start fresh and build the home or project of your dreams. Nestled among beautiful mature trees on a generously sized lot, this location exudes a peaceful, small-town charm. With possible commercial potential (buyer to verify), this is a rare find that combines flexibility, character, and location. Don't miss out!

10. 2025-06-18
    listed $79,000 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    ENDLESS UPSIDE -- renovate the existing structure or start fresh and build the home or project of your dreams. Nestled among beautiful mature trees on a generously sized lot, this location exudes a peaceful, small-town charm. With possible commercial potential (buyer to verify), this is a rare find that combines flexibility, character, and location. Don't miss out!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$968
• − Management: −$968
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $2,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$622
• After-tax cash flow: $2,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation and maintenance, including repairs to the roof, exterior, windows, and landscaping. Improvements to the home's curb appeal and interior condition can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of water damage and possible leakage.
• Major exterior paint — Faded and peeling paint on the exterior.
• Major windows — Broken or missing windows.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation surrounding the house, detracting from curb appeal.
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos provided, but the exterior suggests the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.
• Major flooring — No photos provided, but the exterior suggests the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos provided, but the exterior suggests the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.
• Major foundation/structure — No photos provided, but the exterior suggests the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the property's appearance and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Window replacement — Improves the home's energy efficiency and enhances its curb appeal.
• Both Exterior painting — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both HVAC system inspection and maintenance — Ensures the home's HVAC system is functioning properly and can improve the home's energy efficiency and comfort level.
• Both Interior updates — Improves the home's overall condition and can attract more buyers or renters. The interior condition is inferred from the exterior condition.
• Both Foundation and structural repairs — Ensures the home's structural integrity and can improve the home's overall condition and safety. The condition is inferred from the exterior condition.
• Both Roof repair — Ensures the home's roof is functioning properly and can improve the home's energy efficiency and safety. The condition is inferred from the exterior condition.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of water damage and possible leakage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Faded and peeling paint on the exterior.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Broken or missing windows.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation surrounding the house, detracting from curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos provided, but the exterior suggests the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos provided, but the exterior suggests the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos provided, but the exterior suggests the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · No photos provided, but the exterior suggests the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the property's appearance and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Window replacement — Improves the home's energy efficiency and enhances its curb appeal. ↑
• Both Exterior painting — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system inspection and maintenance — Ensures the home's HVAC system is functioning properly and can improve the home's energy efficiency and comfort level. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Improves the home's overall condition and can attract more buyers or renters. The interior condition is inferred from the exterior condition. ↑
• Both Foundation and structural repairs — Ensures the home's structural integrity and can improve the home's overall condition and safety. The condition is inferred from the exterior condition. ↑
• Both Roof repair — Ensures the home's roof is functioning properly and can improve the home's energy efficiency and safety. The condition is inferred from the exterior condition. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miller R-II
• NCES district ID: 2921000
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $44,658
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7592
• State rank: #276 of 324 in MO

Livability — Miller

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #17217

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miller, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,263

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,142 people
• By 2030: 36,212 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 34,080 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 31,621 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,987 · -30.0%
• By 2100: 20,151 · -45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.6% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.6 2016: R+61.1 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.50%
• Current HPI: 169.814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $72,000 SOMO
• 2025-06-18 Listed $79,000 SOMO