3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
924 sqft ·
Built 1980
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 27 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,265/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$205
Tax + insurance
−$65
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$266
Net cashflow
$730/mo
Annual
$8,755/yr
Cap rate
28.74%
Cash-on-cash
80.18%
DSCR
4.57
1% rule
3.24%
Cash to close
$10,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $38k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Stowe Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #534 of 857 statewide, top 66%, 239 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln Park Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #186 of 258 statewide, top 72%, 524 students, 66% FRL); Denfeld High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #282 of 471 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $32k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 28.7% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NDARKRBMJ5Q5R8
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29