2419 W Main St

Leesburg, FL 34748

$199,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Pending · 221 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,659/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $73/mo
• Annual: $873/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($873/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (17.0% below list).
• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leesburg Elementary School (math 31% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 822 students, 71% FRL); Oak Park Middle School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 575 students, 70% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 798 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $200k implies a 751% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.4% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.