206 Hickory

Central Square, NY 13036

$260,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,151/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$612
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-276/mo
• Annual: $-3,318/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (17.3% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $211k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#723 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Millard Hawk Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 477 students, 52% FRL); Central Square Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 833 students, 45% FRL); Paul V Moore High School (math 91% / reading 75%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,101 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $217k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Central Square — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.