206 Hickory · Central Square, NY 13036

$260,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1986 0.44 ac lot Est $345k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This wonderful home is located on a cul-de-sac and offers four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a two-car garage, fenced yard with IN-GROUND POOL, hot tub and more. There are three bedrooms on the main floor along with a renovated full bathroom featuring double sinks and tub with tiled shower. Great options in the lower level which offers fourth bedroom, an additional living room area and another full bathroom--great for an in-law or guests. This area also has laundry and direct access outside to the fenced rear yard and/or to the garage which has plenty of workspace. Back upstairs, there is engineered bamboo flooring in the main living area which flows into the kitchen and dining room which have been opened up for a more modern feel. Freshly painted cabinets in the kitchen along with two-tiered breakfast bar and all appliances will stay and there is a dishwasher, too. New furnace just one year young and central air conditioning and hot water heater just four years young each. The in-ground pool and fencing were recent upgrades as well as the patio space, extensive drainage for the yard, two-story deck, LED fixtures, nest smoke & CO detectors & more. Showings begin Friday 8/13 @ noon.

Key facts

• Second-story deck
• Backyard retreat
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SECOND-STORY DECK
• BACKYARD RETREAT
• SALTWATER IN-GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic door opener; Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Block foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Fully fenced yard; In-ground pool; Hot tub/spa; Shed(s)/storage; Cul-de-sac lot; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Living/dining room; Sliding glass door(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Central Square — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#723 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Millard Hawk Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 477 students, 52% FRL); Central Square Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 833 students, 45% FRL); Paul V Moore High School (math 91% / reading 75%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,101 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $217k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $211,161 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $345,332
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Aqua Way	0.04mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,508 (0%)	5mo	$282,800	$188	87
203 Hickory Way	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,688 (+12%)	6mo	$250,000	$148	67
Lot 21A Phinney Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,515 (+0%)	10mo	$441,000	$291	53
3319 State Route 49	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (+0%)	22mo	$140,000	$92	46
51 Phinney Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,670 (+11%)	8mo	$382,000	$229	36
19 Creighton Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,710 (+13%)	18mo	$401,500	$235	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $124,137
• Equity at exit: $234,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $379,692
• Equity at exit: $505,123

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13036

• Home prices YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$504 /mo · $6,043/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,501

Max offer price $211,161

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-129	-5% $-203	+0% $-276	+5% $-350	+10% $-424
Rent	-10% $-446	-5% $-361	+0% $-276	+5% $-192	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-210	base $-276	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $260,000 Active
2. 2021-10-26
   soldstatus $217,000 Closed Sale or Rented 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   This wonderful home is located on a cul-de-sac and offers four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a two-car garage, fenced yard with IN-GROUND POOL, hot tub and more. There are three bedrooms on the main floor along with a renovated full bathroom featuring double sinks and tub with tiled shower. Great options in the lower level which offers fourth bedroom, an additional living room area and another full bathroom--great for an in-law or guests. This area also has laundry and direct access outside to the fenced rear yard and/or to the garage which has plenty of workspace. Back upstairs, there is engineered bamboo flooring in the main living area which flows into the kitchen and dining room which have been opened up for a more modern feel. Freshly painted cabinets in the kitchen along with two-tiered breakfast bar and all appliances will stay and there is a dishwasher, too. New furnace just one year young and central air conditioning and hot water heater just four years young each. The in-ground pool and fencing were recent upgrades as well as the patio space, extensive drainage for the yard, two-story deck, LED fixtures, nest smoke & CO detectors & more. Showings begin Friday 8/13 @ noon.

3. 2021-09-14
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   This wonderful home is located on a cul-de-sac and offers four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a two-car garage, fenced yard with IN-GROUND POOL, hot tub and more. There are three bedrooms on the main floor along with a renovated full bathroom featuring double sinks and tub with tiled shower. Great options in the lower level which offers fourth bedroom, an additional living room area and another full bathroom--great for an in-law or guests. This area also has laundry and direct access outside to the fenced rear yard and/or to the garage which has plenty of workspace. Back upstairs, there is engineered bamboo flooring in the main living area which flows into the kitchen and dining room which have been opened up for a more modern feel. Freshly painted cabinets in the kitchen along with two-tiered breakfast bar and all appliances will stay and there is a dishwasher, too. New furnace just one year young and central air conditioning and hot water heater just four years young each. The in-ground pool and fencing were recent upgrades as well as the patio space, extensive drainage for the yard, two-story deck, LED fixtures, nest smoke & CO detectors & more. Showings begin Friday 8/13 @ noon.

4. 2021-08-15
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   This wonderful home is located on a cul-de-sac and offers four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a two-car garage, fenced yard with IN-GROUND POOL, hot tub and more. There are three bedrooms on the main floor along with a renovated full bathroom featuring double sinks and tub with tiled shower. Great options in the lower level which offers fourth bedroom, an additional living room area and another full bathroom--great for an in-law or guests. This area also has laundry and direct access outside to the fenced rear yard and/or to the garage which has plenty of workspace. Back upstairs, there is engineered bamboo flooring in the main living area which flows into the kitchen and dining room which have been opened up for a more modern feel. Freshly painted cabinets in the kitchen along with two-tiered breakfast bar and all appliances will stay and there is a dishwasher, too. New furnace just one year young and central air conditioning and hot water heater just four years young each. The in-ground pool and fencing were recent upgrades as well as the patio space, extensive drainage for the yard, two-story deck, LED fixtures, nest smoke & CO detectors & more. Showings begin Friday 8/13 @ noon.

5. 2021-08-10
   listed $189,900 Active 1212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1212 chars)

   This wonderful home is located on a cul-de-sac and offers four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a two-car garage, fenced yard with IN-GROUND POOL, hot tub and more. There are three bedrooms on the main floor along with a renovated full bathroom featuring double sinks and tub with tiled shower. Great options in the lower level which offers fourth bedroom, an additional living room area and another full bathroom--great for an in-law or guests. This area also has laundry and direct access outside to the fenced rear yard and/or to the garage which has plenty of workspace. Back upstairs, there is engineered bamboo flooring in the main living area which flows into the kitchen and dining room which have been opened up for a more modern feel. Freshly painted cabinets in the kitchen along with two-tiered breakfast bar and all appliances will stay and there is a dishwasher, too. New furnace just one year young and central air conditioning and hot water heater just four years young each. The in-ground pool and fencing were recent upgrades as well as the patio space, extensive drainage for the yard, two-story deck, LED fixtures, nest smoke & CO detectors & more. Showings begin Friday 8/13 @ noon.

6. 2015-08-11
   soldstatus $135,000 Closed Sale or Rented 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   4 bedroom/ 2 bath pristine home! gorgeous hardwoods- bright and cheery kitchen with dining area and sliders out to a 2 tier deck and above ground pool. Tons of updates!! Family room opens to hot tub area. Full bath and 4th bedroom in lower level. New flooring, new doors and windows, 6 car driveway, large spacious yard on a quiet Cul-de-sac.

7. 2015-08-04
   soldstatus $135,000
8. 2015-07-13
   status Pending Sale 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   4 bedroom/ 2 bath pristine home! gorgeous hardwoods- bright and cheery kitchen with dining area and sliders out to a 2 tier deck and above ground pool. Tons of updates!! Family room opens to hot tub area. Full bath and 4th bedroom in lower level. New flooring, new doors and windows, 6 car driveway, large spacious yard on a quiet Cul-de-sac.

9. 2015-05-31
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   4 bedroom/ 2 bath pristine home! gorgeous hardwoods- bright and cheery kitchen with dining area and sliders out to a 2 tier deck and above ground pool. Tons of updates!! Family room opens to hot tub area. Full bath and 4th bedroom in lower level. New flooring, new doors and windows, 6 car driveway, large spacious yard on a quiet Cul-de-sac.

10. 2015-05-13
    listed $129,900 Active 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    4 bedroom/ 2 bath pristine home! gorgeous hardwoods- bright and cheery kitchen with dining area and sliders out to a 2 tier deck and above ground pool. Tons of updates!! Family room opens to hot tub area. Full bath and 4th bedroom in lower level. New flooring, new doors and windows, 6 car driveway, large spacious yard on a quiet Cul-de-sac.

11. 2000-06-30
    soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,043 · $504/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,043 · $504/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$6,043
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,870
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Square Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606900
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,807
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5035
• State rank: #507 of 590 in NY

Livability — Central Square

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #13714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Central Square, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,079

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.27%
• Current HPI: 318.5068
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+237.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $260,000 CNYIS
• 2021-10-26 Sold (MLS) $217,000 CNYIS
• 2021-09-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2021-08-15 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2021-08-10 Listed $189,900 CNYIS
• 2015-08-11 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CNYIS
• 2015-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-13 Pending — CNYIS
• 2015-05-31 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $129,900 CNYIS
• 2000-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,043 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.