2820 Polar Way

Pine Mountain Club, CA 93225

$219,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,858/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$165
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-452/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-452/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,081 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Maricopa Unified (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,302 of 1,400 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maricopa Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,477 of 1,571 statewide, top 94%, 157 students, 98% FRL); Maricopa Middle (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #461 of 498 statewide, top 93%, 77 students, 96% FRL); Maricopa High (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,064 of 1,170 statewide, top 97%, 84 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 55% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 15 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $219k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Pine Mountain Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.