2820 Polar Way · Pine Mountain Club, CA 93225

$219,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

Built 1974 8,280 sqft lot $281/sqft · 20% below area Est $273k · 20% under $165/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Complete Renovation from Head to Toe, look at the photos. New deck at Entry, New lighting throughout, New Flooring , New Kitchen Cabinets , New Farmhouse sink, New Granite Counters, New Appliances including Washer/Dryer combo unit, New Sinks w/ New Faucets, New Ceilings, New Shower & Tile, New Toilet, New Mirrored Closet doors throughout, Room for an RV or Storage Shed, New stairs installed at back of home. You must come and see this beautiful Home for a rental, weekends or full time.

Key facts

• New deck at entry
• New farmhouse sink
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW DECK AT ENTRY
• NEW LIGHTING THROUGHOUT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW FARMHOUSE SINK
• NEW GRANITE COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-452/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Pine Mountain Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,081 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Maricopa Unified (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,302 of 1,400 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maricopa Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,477 of 1,571 statewide, top 94%, 157 students, 98% FRL); Maricopa Middle (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #461 of 498 statewide, top 93%, 77 students, 96% FRL); Maricopa High (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,064 of 1,170 statewide, top 97%, 84 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 55% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $219k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,750 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,709
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -19.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2800 Yukon Way	0.09mi	2/1.0	806 (+3%)	2mo	$210,000	$261	88
2222 Gimmewald Pl	0.63mi	2/1.0	852 (+9%)	9mo	$370,000	$434	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-37,862
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-35,964
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93225

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,204/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$165
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,905

Max offer price $212,350

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $24	+0% $-38	+5% $-100	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-111	+0% $-38	+5% $36	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $18	base $-38	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2106 Sangreia Ct Pine Mountain Club, CA	2.0	1.0	804	$2,000	$2.49	15d	1	1.23mi
2100 Zermatt Dr Pine Mountain Club, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,649	$1.56	12d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $165 · $1,980/yr

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-01-26
    historical
18. 2026-01-21
    listed $219,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Complete Renovation from Head to Toe, look at the photos. New deck at Entry, New lighting throughout, New Flooring , New Kitchen Cabinets , New Farmhouse sink, New Granite Counters, New Appliances including Washer/Dryer combo unit, New Sinks w/ New Faucets, New Ceilings, New Shower & Tile, New Toilet, New Mirrored Closet doors throughout, Room for an RV or Storage Shed, New stairs installed at back of home. You must come and see this beautiful Home for a rental, weekends or full time.

19. 2026-01-21
    listed $219,000 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Complete Renovation from Head to Toe, look at the photos. New deck at Entry, New lighting throughout, New Flooring , New Kitchen Cabinets , New Farmhouse sink, New Granite Counters, New Appliances including Washer/Dryer combo unit, New Sinks w/ New Faucets, New Ceilings, New Shower & Tile, New Toilet, New Mirrored Closet doors throughout, Room for an RV or Storage Shed, New stairs installed at back of home. You must come and see this beautiful Home for a rental, weekends or full time.

20. 2025-02-07
    listed Active
21. 2025-02-04
    historical
22. 2024-03-23
    status Active
23. 2024-01-06
    listed $229,000 Active
24. 2023-11-03
    listed Active
25. 2023-09-06
    status Active
26. 2023-07-12
    price
27. 2023-06-15
    listed Active
28. 2023-05-30
    historical
29. 2023-04-14
    historical
30. 2023-04-13
    listed $269,000 Active
31. 2023-04-11
    listed $269,000 Active
32. 2022-12-18
    historical
33. 2022-10-19
    listed $229,000 Active
34. 2022-09-30
    historical
35. 2022-06-12
    price $229,000
36. 2022-04-05
    listed $249,000 Active
37. 2022-04-05
    listed $249,000 Active
38. 2022-04-05
    historical
39. 2021-10-13
    soldstatus $85,000 Closed Sale
40. 2021-10-13
    soldstatus $85,000
41. 2021-09-18
    historical Active Under Contract
42. 2021-09-01
    status Active
43. 2021-08-20
    status Pending Sale
44. 2021-07-25
    historical Active Under Contract
45. 2021-07-16
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,664 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$460/yr (+$38/mo · 38.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 11 d/yr ≥81°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,204
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − HOA: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$4,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,007
• After-tax cash flow: $555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623820
• Math proficiency: 10% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,246
• Composite: 15.98/100
• National rank: #14303
• State rank: #1302 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Club

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1081
• US rank: #25334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Club, CA
• Population (ZIP): 4,532

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.47%
• Current HPI: 354.6398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+130.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $219,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed — TheMLS
• 2025-02-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-03-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-01-06 Listed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2023-11-03 Listed — TheMLS
• 2023-09-06 Relisted — TheMLS
• 2023-07-12 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2023-06-15 Listed — TheMLS
• 2023-05-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-04-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-04-13 Listed $269,000 CRMLS
• 2023-04-11 Listed $269,000 CRMLS
• 2022-12-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-10-19 Listed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2022-09-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-06-12 Price Changed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2022-04-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-04-05 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2022-04-05 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2021-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-13 Sold (MLS) $85,000 CRMLS
• 2021-09-18 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-09-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2021-08-20 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-07-25 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-07-16 Listed $95,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+22.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,204 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.