3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,354 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 53 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,774/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$308
HOA
−$33
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$372
Net cashflow
$90/mo
Annual
$1,077/yr
Cap rate
6.87%
Cash-on-cash
2.08%
DSCR
1.09
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (4.1% below list).
It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $177k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#639 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Somerset ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— No roof photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a large, possibly damaged roof.
Major: exterior siding
— No exterior photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a large, possibly damaged exterior.
Major: HVAC/mechanical
— No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a large, possibly damaged HVAC system.
Major: landscaping
— No landscaping photos provided, but the satellite image suggests a large, possibly overgrown lot with no visible landscaping features.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NEBZVY1C3ZHYHA
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29