1581 N 25th Way

Show Low, AZ 85901

$280,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,659/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$253
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-410/mo
• Annual: $-4,922/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (40.7% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $166k (40.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $280k implies a 345% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.