1581 N 25th Way · Show Low, AZ 85901

$280,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1980 1.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, location, location! Coming in under appraised value and located close to Fool Hollow Lake in Show Low, this unique property offers a rare setting on approx. 1.25 acres. Featuring a 1980 manufactured home with a large add-on totaling approx. 1,376 sq. ft., this home provides more space than you might expect from its 2-bedroom, 1-bath layout. Enjoy a spacious kitchen, comfortable living area for gatherings, and a shed conversion for a craft room, hobbies, storage, or creative use. The property also includes an outbuilding/garage, plus a 5th wheel that conveys--perfect for extra space when family and friends come to visit. After many years of enjoyment, this home is ready for its next owner to bring fresh ideas, updates, and personal touches. A special location, bring offer!

Key facts

• Shed conversion
• Outbuilding garage
• Approx 1.25 acres

Tags

• APPROX 1.25 ACRES
• LARGE ADD-ON
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• COMFORTABLE LIVING AREA
• SHED CONVERSION
• OUTBUILDING GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1.25 acres; Road maintenance by county and private maintained road; Allowed to raise horses; Located in Show Low Unsubdivided neighborhood
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Utilities: City water (City of Show Low) / metered water; Septic tank; APS electric with individual meter; Power available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home (single wide); One story
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Metal pitched roof; Slab and stemwall foundation; Single wide mobile home; Year remodeled: 2005
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered deck and covered patio; Front porch; Hot tub; Other outbuilding; RV hook-up; Tall pines and trees on the lot; Partly fenced; Property adjoins private land

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar and eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Split bedroom arrangement
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Mini-split heating and cooling; Window unit cooling/heating; Electric water heater; Window unit listed as additional heating
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Furnished; Accessible entrance and accessible kitchen; Work room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in hallway

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (40.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (40.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $280k implies a 345% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,915 (40.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,048
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 W Savage --	0.16mi	2/1.0	940 (+5%)	1mo	$153,000	$163	84
2441 W Thornton Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (+0%)	15mo	$215,000	$239	76
2330 W Sylvester Cir	0.13mi	2/2.0	952 (+6%)	22mo	$135,000	$142	61
2401 W Savage	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	11mo	$270,000	$264	50
2380 W Rogers Loop Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+9%)	21mo	$150,000	$153	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-71,603
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-96,423
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,631/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $207,540

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-252	-5% $-331	+0% $-410	+5% $-489	+10% $-569
Rent	-10% $-541	-5% $-476	+0% $-410	+5% $-345	+10% $-279
Rate	-1.0pp $-269	-0.5pp $-339	base $-410	+0.5pp $-483	+1.0pp $-557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $280,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   listing id $280,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Location, location, location! Coming in under appraised value and located close to Fool Hollow Lake in Show Low, this unique property offers a rare setting on approx. 1.25 acres. Featuring a 1980 manufactured home with a large add-on totaling approx. 1,376 sq. ft., this home provides more space than you might expect from its 2-bedroom, 1-bath layout. Enjoy a spacious kitchen, comfortable living area for gatherings, and a shed conversion for a craft room, hobbies, storage, or creative use. The property also includes an outbuilding/garage, plus a 5th wheel that conveys--perfect for extra space when family and friends come to visit. After many years of enjoyment, this home is ready for its next owner to bring fresh ideas, updates, and personal touches. A special location, bring offer!

4. 2026-06-17
   listed $280,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Location, location, location! Coming in under appraised value and located close to Fool Hollow Lake in Show Low, this unique property offers a rare setting on approx. 1.25 acres. Featuring a 1980 manufactured home with a large add-on totaling approx. 1,376 sq. ft., this home provides more space than you might expect from its 2-bedroom, 1-bath layout. Enjoy a spacious kitchen, comfortable living area for gatherings, and a shed conversion for a craft room, hobbies, storage, or creative use. The property also includes an outbuilding/garage, plus a 5th wheel that conveys--perfect for extra space when family and friends come to visit. After many years of enjoyment, this home is ready for its next owner to bring fresh ideas, updates, and personal touches. A special location, bring offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,848 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,631
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$10,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,433
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+345.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $280,000 WMMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listed $280,000 ARMLS
• 1997-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $62,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,631 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.