415 Schwartz Ave

Towson, MD 21212

$224,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · Built 1913 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,604/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $580/mo
• Annual: $6,961/yr
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.05%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#11 in MD, #338 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Towson Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #67 of 860 statewide, top 8%, 382 students, 11% FRL); Dumbarton Middle (math 21% / reading 55%, grade F, #31 of 225 statewide, top 15%, 1,073 students, 32% FRL); Towson High (math 40% / reading 75%, grade C, #79 of 222 statewide, top 35%, 1,676 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 39% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 24% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $225k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.