1209 15th Pl

Fort Worth, TX 76164

$275,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,037 sqft · Built 1923 · MultiFamily · Active · 327 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,467/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$728
• Net cashflow: $1,071/mo
• Annual: $12,857/yr
• Cap rate: 10.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.70%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 33 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,467/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.